Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234ed7aec6809578ff65b23ac4f90a3bf95067f8cb29d0cc6b7f1f182aa534c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belgiumof Belgium, Croatia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Belgium | 17c | 5,221$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,335.63 | 146 | 12.3%18 W · 128 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Belgium | 16c | 3,223$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.39 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Belgium | 16c | 2,472$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,076.51 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Belgium | 25c | 2,211$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.39 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Belgium | 17c | 1,594$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.84 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Belgium | 15c | 1,140$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.92 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Croatia | 72c | 886$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.76 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c9…9e8abacked Belgium | 17c | 337.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Belgium | 16c | 299.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.53 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…236ebacked Belgium | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Belgium | 21c | 248.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Belgium | 18c | 214.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 171 | 45%77 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Belgium | 31c | 200.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 389 | 60.7%236 W · 153 L | +24.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Belgium | 30c | 192.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 396 | 48.7%193 W · 203 L | -23.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Belgium | 21c | 164.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Croatia | 10c | 153.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Croatia | 77c | 153.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Belgium | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Belgium | 12c | 92.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Croatia | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 847 | 38.8%329 W · 518 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Belgium | 31c | 37.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Croatia | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 62.6%144 W · 86 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Croatia | 79c | 16.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 475 | 46.1%219 W · 256 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)this page
- Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Under won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Croatia won
- Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Croatia (-2.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.