CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40634898b1f8a15a0453f87c4f231cf2557ed96692dc350126785625f60ae72c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ALKAof ALKA, pugdesonesto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa16b…b541backed ALKA | 54c | 1,884$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.64 | 439 | 54.9%241 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked pugdesonesto | 38c | 1,352$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.43 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked ALKA | 61c | 1,198$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.98 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed pugdesonesto | 40c | 1,093$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.84 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked ALKA | 66c | 825.54$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.17 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed pugdesonesto | 41c | 786$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.95 | 1,121 | 42.5%476 W · 645 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked pugdesonesto | 42c | 727$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.65 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed pugdesonesto | 22c | 571.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked pugdesonesto | 22c | 387.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked pugdesonesto | 38c | 359.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 817 | 44.7%365 W · 452 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ALKA | 59c | 319.94$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 1,110 | 54.2%602 W · 508 L | +38.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed ALKA | 54c | 317.89$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 255 | 53.3%136 W · 119 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed pugdesonesto | 45c | 253$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed pugdesonesto | 40c | 246$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…0620backed pugdesonesto | 41c | 245.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ALKA | 56c | 228.53$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ALKA | 59c | 214.34$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked ALKA | 76c | 191$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed pugdesonesto | 24c | 191$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 569 | 38.1%217 W · 352 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed ALKA | 68c | 184$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…c920backed ALKA | 40c | 143.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 180 | 62.2%112 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed ALKA | 46c | 141$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…452fbacked pugdesonesto | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…58aabacked pugdesonesto | 38c | 108.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed pugdesonesto | 55c | 107$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 498 | 43%214 W · 284 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked ALKA | 66c | 95.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1,397 | 52.4%732 W · 665 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed pugdesonesto | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 49.1%184 W · 191 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked ALKA | 61c | 85.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…6de0backed ALKA | 49c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e9…2a7fbacked ALKA | 47c | 84.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked pugdesonesto | 46c | 82.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked pugdesonesto | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed pugdesonesto | 32c | 58.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 434 | 57.1%248 W · 186 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked ALKA | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed ALKA | 61c | 56.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked ALKA | 58c | 51.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked ALKA | 60c | 46.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 170 | 68.2%116 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked ALKA | 59c | 43.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked ALKA | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed ALKA | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed ALKA | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 144 | 41.7%60 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…80a3backed ALKA | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 66cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked pugdesonesto | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed ALKA | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,393 | 46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed ALKA | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…588dbacked pugdesonesto | 37c | 29.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -7.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed ALKA | 61c | 27.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…60f6backed pugdesonesto | 57c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked pugdesonesto | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed ALKA | 78c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…c7a2backed ALKA | 59c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed ALKA | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 89 | 73%65 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto (BO3) - CCT South America Series 5 Group StageALKA won
- Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto - Map 1 Winnerpugdesonesto won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: ALKA (-1.5) vs pugdesonesto (+1.5)pugdesonesto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.