CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69eaa5a9a1461502bb17d47f4ef6c1607068e0101379ca68935cb11d8830ef0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- pugdesonestoof ALKA, pugdesonesto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa62b…58aabacked ALKA | 2c | 2,141$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed ALKA | 15c | 461.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked pugdesonesto | 61c | 360.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed pugdesonesto | 25c | 308.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed ALKA | 75c | 268.91$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.68 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ALKA | 26c | 266.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked pugdesonesto | 70c | 240$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 1,397 | 52.4%732 W · 665 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed ALKA | 37c | 189$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 498 | 43%214 W · 284 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbac…6b32backed pugdesonesto | 27c | 181.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ALKA | 35c | 178.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ALKA | 49c | 175.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed ALKA | 60c | 137.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 255 | 53.3%136 W · 119 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed pugdesonesto | 75c | 133.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 209 | 35.9%75 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked pugdesonesto | 62c | 104.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 817 | 44.7%365 W · 452 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ALKA | 77c | 101.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 1,110 | 54.2%602 W · 508 L | +38.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked ALKA | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked ALKA | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…123dbacked pugdesonesto | 60c | 89.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…7841backed pugdesonesto | 63c | 89.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -10.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed ALKA | 73c | 65.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 541 | 48.6%263 W · 278 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed pugdesonesto | 21c | 56.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed pugdesonesto | 21c | 56.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 231 | 50.2%116 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked pugdesonesto | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…2dd2backed pugdesonesto | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 437 | 64.3%281 W · 156 L | +51.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked pugdesonesto | 67c | 25.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ALKA | 60c | 22.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed pugdesonesto | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 129 | 77.5%100 W · 29 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed pugdesonesto | 77c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 434 | 57.1%248 W · 186 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed pugdesonesto | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 89 | 73%65 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto (BO3) - CCT South America Series 5 Group StageALKA won
- Counter-Strike: ALKA vs pugdesonesto - Map 2 WinnerALKA won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: ALKA (-1.5) vs pugdesonesto (+1.5)pugdesonesto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.