Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x407c408765b24531f87fa90414973fe7e5d6e6b9c204a9cbaf37fadeae06055c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,021$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 13c | 634.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 6c | 463.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 11c | 453.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 21c | 421.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 323.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 253.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 233.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 11c | 232.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 12c | 223.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 13c | 214.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 17c | 190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 187.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 165.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 25c | 163.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 154.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 142$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 15c | 134.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 128.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 126.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 32c | 124.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 124.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 10c | 119.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 119$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 22c | 93.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed Yes | 38c | 90.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 73.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 69.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 68.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 64.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 20c | 57.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 26c | 57.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 39.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 38.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 36.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.