TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b38…7ba3backed No0c16,702$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes63c1,115$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.3131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No54c921.97$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.874847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes47c895.65$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No42c372.64$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5114646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No36c362.86$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.463,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c354.21$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No52c304.24$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8125358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c245$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.42,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No43c233.09$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x186c…f982backed Yes57c200.42$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.83060%18 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No40c195.64$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.812,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c168$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes72c163.39$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.631,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes48c160.88$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2119…1e8fbacked Yes79c153.83$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.91560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No21c151.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6884124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.065,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No50c148.62$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.331,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No19c145.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.021,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c129.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes45c119.04$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No45c113$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No34c104$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.361,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4142544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf632…40c6backed No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8be7…8f75backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes75c99.8$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.936,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked Yes50c96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4813444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes48c86.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes60c80.64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8615044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No14c79.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes59c74.51$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.35,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes44c74.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.721,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c69.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No55c65.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9267336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd62a…de09backed Yes63c63.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.053647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No37c63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.342,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No31c60.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.931,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.119345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes48c59.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.228,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.622,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No39c52.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.352,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes58c51.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7112540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes57c50.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.612,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa88f…1096backed No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x395e…34c0backed No37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.56162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2727029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No40c48.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No37c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No23c47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6814119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes63c46.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.113838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No37c46.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.332,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No43c46.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No53c45.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes66c45.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3817144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6410354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes67c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.321,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8637835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No56c42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5271464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No27c40.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.071,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No49c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4553353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes70c39.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No39c39.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes58c39.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.383740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked Yes69c36.77$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes57c35.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2161249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes70c35.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.531118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes72c34.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.95543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No30c34.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.382,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78e1…2f80backed No41c34.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes59c33.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8937942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes57c33.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.381,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes45c31.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.331650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No47c31.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.627,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes51c31.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.215558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.112458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes48c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes64c29.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No52c28.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7532440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc969…0377backed Yes72c27.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.58512.9%11 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes66c25.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c24.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.941,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No55c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No48c23.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2898565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c22.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.