Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901c0dc38c7913f35cb8eea08fb2ab8f05567cb3937b7f0ce3b5c2056c96bb0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b38…7ba3backed No | 0c | 16,702$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,115$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.31 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 54c | 921.97$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.87 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 895.65$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 42c | 372.64$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 362.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 354.21$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 52c | 304.24$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 245$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 233.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed Yes | 57c | 200.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 195.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 168$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 72c | 163.39$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 160.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…1e8fbacked Yes | 79c | 153.83$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 21c | 151.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 50c | 148.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 145.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 129.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 119.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 45c | 113$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 104$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…40c6backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8be7…8f75backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 99.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 48c | 86.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 60c | 80.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 74.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 74.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 69.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 55c | 65.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 63c | 63.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 37c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 60.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 59.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 52.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 58c | 51.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 50.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…34c0backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 48.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 63c | 46.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 37c | 46.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 46.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 45.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 66c | 45.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 67c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 27c | 40.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 39.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 39c | 39.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 58c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 69c | 36.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes | 70c | 35.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 72c | 34.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 34.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…2f80backed No | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 57c | 33.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes | 45c | 31.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 31.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 51c | 31.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 64c | 29.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 52c | 28.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 72c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 66c | 25.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 48c | 23.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 22.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.