Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bba1d5cc1545c504f670fa4a4d98aba038bec6c027e56beedd12df34c92c2c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,051$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 36c | 805.04$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.36 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 347.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 273.03$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 28c | 268.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 73c | 246.59$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 237$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 220$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 10c | 199.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 197.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 187.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 185$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 6c | 184.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 8c | 176.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 8c | 171.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 168$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 161.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 29c | 141.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 125.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 72c | 118.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 109.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 28c | 100.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…945ebacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 94.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 77c | 88.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…09f6backed No | 71c | 84.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 74.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed Yes | 30c | 70.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 67.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 65.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 65.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 59.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 53.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 52.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 50.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…67c5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 31c | 49.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 49.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 74c | 45.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 78c | 44.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 37c | 39.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 37.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 33.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 27.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.