Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C: Michelsen vs. Evans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x408cf7444368431a117a94c530da030de9c12def3d6398722b0f8a668ed88b2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Evansof Michelsen, Evans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Michelsen | 75c | 1,334$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Michelsen | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…2b17backed Evans | 63c | 955.38$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Evans | 43c | 915.21$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.67 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Evans | 30c | 900$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Evans | 28c | 500$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.25 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Michelsen | 49c | 497.82$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.4wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…50c2backed Michelsen | 73c | 339.16$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Evans | 27c | 339.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.59 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Evans | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Evans | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Michelsen | 60c | 232$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Michelsen | 75c | 184.72$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Michelsen | 67c | 167.03$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Michelsen | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Michelsen | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Evans | 45c | 138.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Michelsen | 73c | 136.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Evans | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Evans | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Evans | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Evans | 26c | 99.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Michelsen | 71c | 97.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Evans | 40c | 95.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Evans | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 325 | 48%156 W · 169 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Evans | 29c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Evans | 28c | 55.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Evans | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Michelsen | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Evans | 29c | 46.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Michelsen | 50c | 43.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…869cbacked Michelsen | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…c0cfbacked Michelsen | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.