Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40b6da7347d84bf0c1eb5f48cadce5a7d8546fa9348e459ff1070fb35c486214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 477.16$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.44 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 200.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 6c | 181.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 63c | 180$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 8c | 158.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 131.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 116.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 71c | 81.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 73c | 77.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 74.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 37c | 66.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 51.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 49.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 37c | 48.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 46.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 61c | 45.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Yes | 36c | 42.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 41c | 40.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 39.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 38.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 62c | 36.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 44c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Yes | 71c | 33.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 31.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 60c | 31.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 25.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 74c | 25.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…4d64backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.