Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b578d56ffa76f0164c633c0849b0370ae81834413bbdc0f45b1be04c3c43e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 213.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 171.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 164.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 32c | 132.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 64c | 92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 73.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 70c | 71.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 55c | 68.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 27c | 66.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Yes | 30c | 60.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 56.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 51.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 39.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 53c | 38.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 36.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 35.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 33.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 33.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 48c | 30.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 21.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.