Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x412e76e747dfc1907c2f2cc5b233aa43b94a86b9a9e76e95269c2c310b2c22eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin FCof FC Dallas, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Dallas | 7c | 1,136$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Dallas | 31c | 913.96$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.72 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked FC Dallas | 21c | 568.24$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Dallas | 4c | 321.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed FC Dallas | 18c | 141.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed FC Dallas | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed FC Dallas | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked FC Dallas | 20c | 91.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Austin FC | 80c | 90.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Dallas | 18c | 81.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Austin FC | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked FC Dallas | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Austin FC | 78c | 38.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Austin FC | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Austin FC | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Austin FC | 72c | 22.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Austin FC | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)this page
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: Austin FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.