Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x956453fe3af9ee5b7b6e29140f274e3992bbae3bf6082aa723c06fd9b2af8764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 80c | 3,327$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.4 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 80c | 2,586$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.24 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 2,017$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.4 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…0392backed Under | 20c | 1,773$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 20c | 1,573$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.68 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 33c | 1,249$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.05 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 20c | 811$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 33c | 802.88$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.43 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 9c | 634.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 80c | 448$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 20c | 282.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 20c | 275.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Over | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 20c | 172.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 130.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 20c | 114$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 66c | 98.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 80c | 97.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Over | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 35c | 82.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Under | 40c | 50.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…9ac0backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 80c | 30.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 79c | 28.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…f9b0backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5this page
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: Austin FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: FC Dallas O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.