Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4145aac56f9082f94503c84c0f06453e00c152e1745d3c0199fc06c61b896936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,045$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 39c | 329.3$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 139.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 70c | 108.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 52c | 86.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 79.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 72.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 58.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 58.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 58.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 58.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 56.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 49.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 47.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 41.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 36.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 36.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 35.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 31.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 29.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 51c | 24.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 59c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 77c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 17.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.