Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ae9e4fa8827e9fa2b3c69f842b61a1ea42a81b0cf22d35b94c783b4394c54ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 40c | 501.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.48 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 73c | 425.15$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.46 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 5c | 415$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 182.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 180.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 39c | 179.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 153.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 147$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 12c | 141.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 9c | 131.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 33c | 130.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 71c | 119.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 15c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 51c | 99.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 76.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 72.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97f…8648backed No | 69c | 72.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 72.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 69.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 66.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 65.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 68c | 62.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 58.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 58.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 56.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 55.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 49.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 49.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 47.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 47.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 33c | 45.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 37.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed Yes | 71c | 37.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 43c | 37.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 36.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 35.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 36c | 33.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0415…9c0abacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 29.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 62c | 27.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 67c | 27.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 27.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 24.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 49c | 24.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 70c | 16.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 15.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.