MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4150fb19fc421ac91f7190ba8364941857e3e0249e2b5c55fe2a26aa477d889a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Rays | 52c | 9,120$4,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,377.73 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Twins | 50c | 6,000$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.42 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2016…b4bebacked Rays | 50c | 5,610$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,804.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 48c | 5,123$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.01 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Twins | 16c | 4,541$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 48c | 2,050$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.1 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…322bbacked Rays | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…39e3backed Twins | 46c | 1,990$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Rays | 53c | 1,892$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.29 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Twins | 45c | 1,448$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.81 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Twins | 13c | 1,211$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Twins | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Rays | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…eab1backed Twins | 5c | 781.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Twins | 64c | 619.81$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.4 | 179 | 27.9%50 W · 129 L | -15.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…40cdbacked Twins | 47c | 544.68$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Twins | 49c | 510$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rays | 55c | 455.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Twins | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Rays | 51c | 386.45$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.36 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Rays | 77c | 380.01$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…bf0bbacked Twins | 18c | 324.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…bea8backed Rays | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…6713backed Rays | 74c | 271.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…0d0dbacked Twins | 49c | 271.19$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Twins | 13c | 238.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Rays | 62c | 226.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Twins | 43c | 223.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Twins | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Rays | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…20d0backed Twins | 11c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 3.5%14 W · 390 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Twins | 46c | 185$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…066abacked Rays | 54c | 169$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Rays | 50c | 144.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Twins | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a4…932dbacked Twins | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…465abacked Twins | 50c | 105.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…13bbbacked Rays | 52c | 104.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…54dbbacked Twins | 50c | 104.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…7eb3backed Twins | 49c | 103.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…0656backed Twins | 49c | 103.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…20c5backed Rays | 52c | 103.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadf…2fc2backed Rays | 52c | 102.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…a8babacked Twins | 50c | 102.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Rays | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Rays | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Twins | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…e6c3backed Twins | 50c | 98.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0400backed Rays | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31cabacked Rays | 52c | 97.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0721…25cfbacked Rays | 52c | 96.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839a…434abacked Rays | 53c | 92.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Rays | 51c | 91.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…6a04backed Twins | 50c | 90.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Rays | 54c | 87.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rays | 73c | 84.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Twins | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 53c | 69.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Twins | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rays | 79c | 60.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…62a1backed Twins | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Rays | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 49c | 56.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…5318backed Rays | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Twins | 47c | 48.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Twins | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…7d7fbacked Twins | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 56.6%86 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…93f4backed Twins | 51c | 41.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…5ce8backed Rays | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Twins | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Twins | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b83…e63dbacked Twins | 50c | 38.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Rays | 51c | 21.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.