Golf · resolved market
Will it take Jerry 5000 or more strokes to hit a Hole in One?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4155bbf0b5b9823c1d43fc9ec45b9158bb9d15cd921fa71bfabe4aab4dea22ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 29c | 1,943$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 31c | 982.51$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 13c | 660$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 51c | 611.51$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…2163backed No | 5c | 531$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 49c | 500$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 40c | 413.34$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked No | 16c | 310$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 80c | 283.57$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 66c | 230$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 27c | 185$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 77c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 77c | 159.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…99c9backed No | 24c | 50.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will it take Jerry 5000 or more strokes to hit a Hole in One?this page
- WIll it take Jerry Under 500 strokes to hit a hole in one?No won
- Will it take Jerry 2000-2999 stokes to hit a Hole in One?No won
- Will it take Jerry 3000-3999 strokes to hit a Hole in One?No won
- Will it take Jerry 4000-4999 strokes to hit a Hole in One?No won
- Will it take Jerry between 1000-1499 strokes to hit a Hole in One?No won
- Will it take Jerry between 1500-1999 strokes to hit a Hole in One?No won
- Will it take Jerry between 500-999 strokes to hit a Hole in One?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.