Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417a89b878ed1858dfd21d7e8fdd68e29b0404d07e6a8ca65e2e1e38b4f0be68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 3c | 2,700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 78c | 1,416$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 565$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 12c | 419.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…aea1backed Yes | 63c | 295.02$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 56c | 289.15$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…ee6dbacked No | 44c | 273.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 77c | 251.31$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 199.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 197.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 57c | 193.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 67c | 185.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 148.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…caf7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 36c | 94.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…8078backed Yes | 69c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 41c | 72.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…728bbacked Yes | 74c | 60.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…393dbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…d443backed Yes | 62c | 48.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…5294backed Yes | 60c | 42.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…0f2cbacked Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…5c8abacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b10…8478backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 63c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…0a68backed Yes | 78c | 23.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…e0c4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 69c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on December 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on December 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.