Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417b2540f8e88cb9516a2a9304978b4c0317ebf61b8ab1cf4973179060483f48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb2…732ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed No | 61c | 6,541$3,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 62c | 3,080$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.61 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Yes | 36c | 2,339$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 61c | 1,361$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.43 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed Yes | 9c | 1,233$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 39c | 1,104$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.39 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 39c | 1,032$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 39c | 889.84$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.64 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 66c | 591.91$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…4529backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 448.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 40c | 435.29$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.91 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 370.44$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.61 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 37c | 334.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Yes | 39c | 299.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 266.77$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Yes | 40c | 182.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…1c3fbacked No | 64c | 161.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…dc4ebacked No | 61c | 160.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 42c | 154.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 62c | 136.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 66c | 127.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 37c | 105.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 59c | 101.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 65c | 100.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 29c | 84.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked No | 60c | 82.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeda…a39ebacked Yes | 42c | 76.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 35c | 67.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 34c | 67.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked No | 66c | 64.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 73c | 56.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1783backed Yes | 37c | 54.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Yes | 25c | 51.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -7.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 68c | 39.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 32c | 37.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 35c | 37.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c6f7backed Yes | 42c | 36.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 67c | 34.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 39c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 61c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?No won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.