Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x404e66c4d22347f22f43a4c4482a1208fff3688fd884cb45d443c4757cd7c4fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 2,281$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.56 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,367$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 35c | 742.93$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.16 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 67c | 530.58$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 68c | 464.99$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Yes | 26c | 461.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 32c | 308.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 18c | 298.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 33c | 212.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed No | 67c | 168.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 16c | 146.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 67c | 136.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 66c | 135.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 66c | 119.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 21c | 102.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Yes | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 100.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 93.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 70c | 83.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed No | 68c | 59.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 38c | 46.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 74c | 42.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 34c | 36.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 33c | 33.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 33c | 33.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 34c | 32.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 72c | 31.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 64c | 29.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…517cbacked No | 59c | 25.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 66c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.