Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417d06bc127f719cf07548aaad09819cec3d7bea16720d7c8d9685285ca8d041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 2c | 2,361$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,214$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 11c | 734.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 5c | 458.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 409.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.48 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 378.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 369.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.67 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 355.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 30c | 309.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.26 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 308.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 26c | 275.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 5c | 237.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.14 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 15c | 231.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.93 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 215.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.34 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 45c | 198.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 196.17$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 8c | 159$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 24c | 155$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 133.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 127.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 102.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 86.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 85.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 84.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed No | 70c | 84.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 72.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 61.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 52.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…39e9backed No | 68c | 49.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 42.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 52c | 38.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…30d4backed Yes | 29c | 35.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 17.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 15.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 14.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.