Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5f68d4c5fcdefc29da8333c3493579a46bf9cb372c3efa59bf33cd9cae418bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 5c | 401.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 220.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 168.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 16c | 141.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed No | 77c | 136.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 129.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…b7abbacked Yes | 26c | 106.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 22c | 98.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 94.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 92.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 89.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 86.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 84.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 83.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 80.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 23c | 78.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 17c | 75.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 73.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 55.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 72c | 54.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 73c | 46.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 76c | 44.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 27c | 40.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 77c | 31.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 78c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 70c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.