NBA · resolved market
Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b4be12f33573d82d38bad8f688b1da35416dd9f084e8d1ebad74c40d2785c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc9…c790backed Yes | 46c | 493.47$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.9 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 54c | 413.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.43 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Yes | 46c | 105.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Yes | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…b830backed Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ad…bc2dbacked Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 40c | 40.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked No | 60c | 20.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5this page
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Trail Blazers vs. SpursTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.