NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 113.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a4dfe197c2ca08a6128cf138bdf75c69fa5280e05d8d438f40e074ffb50de4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 284.54$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 218.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.51 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Under | 55c | 175.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 53c | 137.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Under | 50c | 116$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 50c | 73.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Under | 54c | 70.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 57.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf2…8bf0backed Under | 53c | 53.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Under | 50c | 42.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 43c | 42.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…e6c0backed Under | 57c | 41.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…1cedbacked Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 113.5this page
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 4.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Trail Blazers won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Trail Blazers vs. SpursTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.