Tennis · resolved market
Mallorca Championships: Moutet vs. Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b7011f81e83d38cdc5f7558a5b36a658d92d0844d9eb1319ddda7c8c86f497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moutet of Moutet , Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Moutet | 68c | 15,141$10,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,850.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Moutet | 41c | 13,167$5,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,829.57 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Michelsen | 60c | 9,448$5,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,669 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Michelsen | 32c | 7,188$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.78 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Michelsen | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.96 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michelsen | 58c | 2,924$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.16 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Michelsen | 38c | 2,530$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.97 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Moutet | 39c | 2,064$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.93 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Michelsen | 47c | 2,000$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Michelsen | 31c | 1,281$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Michelsen | 34c | 1,160$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.63 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Moutet | 36c | 1,013$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.26 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Michelsen | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Michelsen | 61c | 999.99$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Moutet | 55c | 859.76$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.95 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0aacbacked Moutet | 36c | 820$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Moutet | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Michelsen | 31c | 800$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Michelsen | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Moutet | 65c | 480$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34f…6336backed Michelsen | 64c | 475$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…d5e8backed Michelsen | 64c | 470$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Moutet | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Moutet | 37c | 375.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Michelsen | 59c | 299.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Moutet | 63c | 270$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Michelsen | 63c | 260$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Michelsen | 28c | 252.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Moutet | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Michelsen | 44c | 235.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…e428backed Moutet | 38c | 234.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Michelsen | 49c | 205.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Michelsen | 34c | 199$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…fe36backed Moutet | 36c | 170$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Moutet | 37c | 163$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…333dbacked Moutet | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Moutet | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Michelsen | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Moutet | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Michelsen | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Michelsen | 61c | 106.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Moutet | 35c | 106.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Michelsen | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Michelsen | 57c | 90.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Michelsen | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Michelsen | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Michelsen | 32c | 78.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff1…7e56backed Michelsen | 47c | 74.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Moutet | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Moutet | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…f9b4backed Michelsen | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…42ebbacked Michelsen | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…3d76backed Michelsen | 47c | 50.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Moutet | 35c | 46.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Michelsen | 37c | 41.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Michelsen | 61c | 36.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…b398backed Michelsen | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Michelsen | 61c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Moutet | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Michelsen | 61c | 18.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.