South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c920e569cb273e43dbfa8eb8b2e7879abe3493dde621af971fbf3ded59571c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 3,764$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…54a6backed Yes | 27c | 2,944$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 2,827$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 74c | 2,247$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.29 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 1,494$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.12 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 31c | 1,310$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.83 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes | 29c | 893.29$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.94 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…d03cbacked Yes | 29c | 737.93$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 666.37$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.12 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 75c | 574.22$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 75c | 559.17$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 439.35$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…f7b5backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 32c | 250.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 29c | 190.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 79c | 185.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…be08backed Yes | 32c | 175.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 124.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 121.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 24c | 119.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 19c | 98.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 69c | 72.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 79c | 60.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 72c | 52.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 73c | 33.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 73c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 79c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked No | 76c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed No | 75c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-27?No won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.