Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41dcf2d156448b7d8a23753516d7eed0aa2b092bff3fb1b790528492485bbebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 5,074$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.83 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…1e6cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,124$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,443$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.8 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,397$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.59 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 25c | 826$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…92c3backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 730.48$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Yes | 28c | 550$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 24c | 406.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bd…2182backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…05c4backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Yes | 14c | 398.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…3a42backed Yes | 31c | 328.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 312.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 308.33$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 307.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 28c | 289.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…1d2abacked Yes | 11c | 218.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 78c | 153$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…c5b3backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 141$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Yes | 28c | 125.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed No | 72c | 94.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 91.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 58.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 29c | 47.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 71c | 47.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…2427backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed No | 75c | 31.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e0f5backed No | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…4eb5backed No | 73c | 22.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…921cbacked No | 76c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-01-10?No won
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.