MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420984e0c6cca9dde27042338759d3de2a4c282c24316c668938d4139c2065de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 56c | 107,375$60,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,323.31 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 44c | 100,015$44,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,006.64 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 46c | 13,549$6,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,271.34 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 48c | 6,925$3,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,324.05 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 5,908$3,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.3 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 57c | 4,756$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.25 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 4,262$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.54 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 53c | 3,300$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 2,341$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.61 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Over | 46c | 2,172$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.27 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed Over | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…cf21backed Under | 73c | 1,196$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.82 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 816.79$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.56 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 45c | 644.67$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.1 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 32c | 587.32$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 71c | 570.81$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 52c | 485.6$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.09 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 53c | 482.86$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.94 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 440$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 352$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Over | 46c | 350.49$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…95a5backed Under | 56c | 346.51$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 53c | 331.83$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 54c | 314.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.87 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 271.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Under | 56c | 197.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 54c | 188.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 169.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Under | 54c | 160.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 153.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 140.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…332dbacked Under | 56c | 131.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Under | 56c | 124.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…8301backed Under | 56c | 110.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 10c | 106.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 28c | 100.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 54c | 83.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 45c | 81.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Under | 54c | 73.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 70.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 44c | 66.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 54c | 64.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Under | 54c | 62.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 54c | 58.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 44c | 53.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Under | 56c | 42.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 77c | 38.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 43c | 34.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 55c | 33.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed Under | 54c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 56c | 29.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 52c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Under | 56c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cac…7c50backed Under | 56c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. New York MetsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.