MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0543f4abe439fad410fb8606655ff36636ebf9f2cbd714813ffc426927a44d

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Athleticsof New York Mets, Athletics
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,810 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets	24c	10,302$2,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,510.29	220	47.7%105 W · 115 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Athletics	59c	9,591$5,641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,949.58	1,355	49.8%675 W · 680 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed New York Mets	41c	6,757$2,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,770.5	237	38%90 W · 147 L	-9.2wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed New York Mets	41c	6,638$2,722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,721.61	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics	75c	5,233$3,939 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,294.47	6,123	55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L	+346.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed New York Mets	41c	4,990$2,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,045.92	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Athletics	59c	4,829$2,858 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,970.72	650	50.3%327 W · 323 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics	74c	2,100$1,554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.96	1,874	52%975 W · 899 L	+51.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Athletics	59c	1,787$1,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$732.68	323	48.9%158 W · 165 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics	75c	1,634$1,232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics	59c	1,236$726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.71	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed New York Mets	43c	1,127$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.93	79	34.2%27 W · 52 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics	59c	1,105$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.51	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Athletics	59c	1,084$639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.3	1,119	45.5%509 W · 610 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Athletics	60c	814.79$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.94	1,269	51.1%648 W · 621 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics	74c	741.15$548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.7	1,947	53.1%1,033 W · 914 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics	73c	610$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.18	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91bc…a124backed New York Mets	23c	494.05$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.54	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics	59c	420$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.2	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed New York Mets	41c	365.18$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.72	366	49.2%180 W · 186 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics	74c	251.98$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.52	781	46.4%362 W · 419 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics	73c	243.29$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.76	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked New York Mets	42c	229.81$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.52	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-7.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked New York Mets	42c	228.82$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.96	132	56.1%74 W · 58 L	+8.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics	60c	222.53$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.01	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked New York Mets	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	341	45.2%154 W · 187 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Athletics	59c	165.32$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.78	443	48.5%215 W · 228 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Athletics	60c	162.71$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.11	122	50.8%62 W · 60 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed New York Mets	40c	124.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	218	47.7%104 W · 114 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked New York Mets	40c	111.39$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	143	40.6%58 W · 85 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Athletics	59c	97.54$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.99	551	46.8%258 W · 293 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics	77c	90.82$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.99	6,305	48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L	+181.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked New York Mets	42c	89.6$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.63	335	47.5%159 W · 176 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics	68c	87.78$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.99	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Athletics	59c	87.62$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.92	91	61.5%56 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics	58c	84$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.28	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Athletics	59c	83.69$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.31	509	49.5%252 W · 257 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed New York Mets	36c	83.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	875	52.7%461 W · 414 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Athletics	60c	81.37$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.57	127	50.4%64 W · 63 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Mets	43c	67.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.83	799	43.2%345 W · 454 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cc…3132backed Athletics	59c	58.38$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	117	53%62 W · 55 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked New York Mets	41c	57.24$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	1,029	51.2%527 W · 502 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed New York Mets	40c	55.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	125	52%65 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed New York Mets	42c	51.72$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	101	57.4%58 W · 43 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Athletics	58c	50.42$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.18	569	46.9%267 W · 302 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets	42c	49.12$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Athletics	64c	38.72$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.94	2,588	61.5%1,591 W · 997 L	+72.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed New York Mets	36c	37.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	68	50%34 W · 34 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Athletics	60c	37.07$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.83	310	46.5%144 W · 166 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd499…7d5bbacked Athletics	59c	32.8$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.28	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Athletics	60c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	254	52%132 W · 122 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84c…efd5backed Athletics	60c	27.07$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.83	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Athletics	61c	24.12$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.46	307	50.2%154 W · 153 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Athletics	60c	23.83$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.53	127	61.4%78 W · 49 L	+8.3wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+11%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics	58c	20.93$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Athletics	60c	19.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.81	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Athletics	71c	16.72$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.86	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
Athletics vs. New York MetsAthletics won
Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)New York Mets won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New York MetsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event