TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuning: Yi Zhou vs Kody Pearson

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kody Pearsonof Yi Zhou, Kody Pearson
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,812 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Kody Pearson14c6,593$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,690.0711,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yi Zhou8c4,979$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.938,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Kody Pearson72c4,077$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.894,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Yi Zhou64c3,874$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,486.822,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yi Zhou32c1,797$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.532,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Yi Zhou49c1,791$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.1540548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Yi Zhou49c1,524$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.8527247.4%129 W · 143 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kody Pearson60c1,449$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.216,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Kody Pearson9c1,197$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.5233346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Yi Zhou24c1,153$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6480153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kody Pearson13c1,123$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.246,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Yi Zhou31c928.89$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5711735.9%42 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Kody Pearson74c799.11$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.8754450.6%275 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Yi Zhou46c783.36$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.0734847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Kody Pearson74c778.08$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.313958.3%81 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Kody Pearson16c709.11$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.321,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc9…0c47backed Yi Zhou2c666.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kody Pearson50c536.19$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.862,43350.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L+81.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yi Zhou42c505.06$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.964,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Yi Zhou53c467.81$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.3165346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yi Zhou34c464.35$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.73,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x39c4…2d95backed Yi Zhou33c445$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.12114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-67.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Kody Pearson45c428.96$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.5584963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yi Zhou42c406.95$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.146,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Kody Pearson75c403.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7931656.3%178 W · 138 L+19.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yi Zhou73c400$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.729,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7988…a57ebacked Kody Pearson13c309.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.743429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Yi Zhou56c305.94$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9879653%422 W · 374 L+25.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Yi Zhou52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kody Pearson8c295.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.643,88435%1,358 W · 2,526 L+92.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Kody Pearson8c270.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.191,51224.1%364 W · 1,148 L-41.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Yi Zhou15c264.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8548453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Yi Zhou57c260.8$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.585568.3%584 W · 271 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46ff…6672backed Kody Pearson8c259.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0315512.9%20 W · 135 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…8237backed Yi Zhou33c257.24$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1116560%99 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Yi Zhou16c247.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6863052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Yi Zhou16c247.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.681,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Kody Pearson40c243.7$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.331,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2015…0eaabacked Kody Pearson73c242.29$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.012965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c6e…271bbacked Yi Zhou13c225.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.442556%14 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+45%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Yi Zhou13c225.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.441,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Yi Zhou13c225.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4460651.8%314 W · 292 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yi Zhou13c225.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4465952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Yi Zhou13c225.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4450156.1%281 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Yi Zhou13c225.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4433557%191 W · 144 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Yi Zhou13c225.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4423057%131 W · 99 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Kody Pearson8c224.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.3320836.5%76 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Yi Zhou57c218.96$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3848149.5%238 W · 243 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.291,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2985348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2913949.6%69 W · 70 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x659f…04e4backed Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2910359.2%61 W · 42 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2913151.1%67 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcdd…6d55backed Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2914856.8%84 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2976853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2919153.4%102 W · 89 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…15afbacked Yi Zhou14c209.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.291241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Yi Zhou14c209.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2910160.4%61 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Yi Zhou14c209.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2929851%152 W · 146 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Yi Zhou14c209.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2860355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Yi Zhou14c209.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.281,25452.1%653 W · 601 L+45.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Yi Zhou14c209.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2829652.4%155 W · 141 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Kody Pearson64c201.71$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.827635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Yi Zhou76c199.78$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3252854.9%290 W · 238 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Yi Zhou68c198.58$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2565264.1%418 W · 234 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Yi Zhou14c197.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.613557.8%78 W · 57 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa163…934dbacked Yi Zhou39c192.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1530715.6%48 W · 259 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Yi Zhou14c185.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9748652.1%253 W · 233 L-1.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Yi Zhou14c185.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9741658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yi Zhou14c185.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9761752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yi Zhou14c185.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9739955.4%221 W · 178 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf84b…6455backed Yi Zhou27c183.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.811217.4%9 W · 112 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Yi Zhou52c183.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.712,13556%1,195 W · 940 L+41.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Yi Zhou14c173.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2837153.9%200 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c01…59a0backed Yi Zhou14c157.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.085246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Yi Zhou14c157.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0723444.9%105 W · 129 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe35…5d8bbacked Kody Pearson10c148.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.932152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Yi Zhou29c145.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.31145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Yi Zhou30c138.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.14,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Kody Pearson73c135.36$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3727346.5%127 W · 146 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yi Zhou39c130.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.71,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yi Zhou21c122.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Kody Pearson74c106.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9991880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked Kody Pearson41c105.4$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1945646.3%211 W · 245 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yi Zhou70c105$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.854,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Yi Zhou14c101.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2333655.1%185 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce10…6f4cbacked Yi Zhou20c95.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Yi Zhou55c83.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7347852.1%249 W · 229 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…8263backed Yi Zhou68c70.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.118559.5%110 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb883…3994backed Kody Pearson72c69.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0621549.8%107 W · 108 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b01…0257backed Yi Zhou59c66.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.02650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc274…86debacked Yi Zhou61c65.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7649342.8%211 W · 282 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510e…b8e0backed Kody Pearson45c64.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.466246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yi Zhou17c63.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7336839.1%144 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Yi Zhou50c62.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4195846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Yi Zhou35c58.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2553539.3%210 W · 325 L+37.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x023d…23acbacked Yi Zhou54c54.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.561855.8%345 W · 273 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7c…8ab4backed Kody Pearson74c54.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.136863.2%43 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kody Pearson66c53.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.121,45645.1%656 W · 800 L+42.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Yi Zhou27c47.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9417046.5%79 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.