Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x420fb9b9ab15465ba01978cb369ab782a25f0590c31a79c190dad1fbb41ec6c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 614.29$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 71c | 454.96$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.19 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 29c | 444$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.24 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 412.94$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.13 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 341.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Over | 45c | 316.24$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 42c | 268$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Under | 56c | 260.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 22c | 258.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 243$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 51c | 235.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 72c | 214.4$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 30c | 177$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 40c | 171.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 30c | 161.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 74c | 135.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 25c | 134.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 78c | 133.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 77c | 129.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 99.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 73c | 93.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 91.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 81.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 72c | 69.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 63c | 64.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 65c | 63.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 58.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 66c | 53.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 78c | 53.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 51.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 30c | 48.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 54c | 43.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 74c | 42.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 45c | 41.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 72c | 39.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 68c | 38.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Under | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 28.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 26.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…ab23backed Over | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Over | 78c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…e02fbacked Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…9363backed Over | 67c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…ca53backed Over | 78c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Over | 50c | 20.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.