TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,194 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Under51c21,175$10,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,822.6713553.3%72 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba8…cdb3backed Under52c7,879$4,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,096.921662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over49c6,151$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.154551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece6…c4bfbacked Over49c5,268$2,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,686.684100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+119.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed Under52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb22…6478backed Over45c3,410$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.5915647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ab…13a1backed Over49c2,928$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Over49c2,237$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.87825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Over48c1,985$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.212263.1%77 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9375…b655backed Over49c1,971$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under55c1,729$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.1423858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Over48c1,600$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83217258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c49…03d0backed Over49c1,465$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.15450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over44c1,181$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.6799340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Over48c1,168$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.4515858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Over48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5208547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Over48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.333046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Over48c700$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36412661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Over48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3251566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over48c500.95$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4910960.6%66 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over47c498.16$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.8458043.6%253 W · 327 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over48c450$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2348540%34 W · 51 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+41.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under55c441$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.557031.4%22 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Over48c437.5$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.51275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under56c413.64$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5772850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Over48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20814359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under54c363.8$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0970249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over45c277$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3555750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over48c260$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.216960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Over48c260$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.214257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under55c226.75$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5678344.4%348 W · 435 L-30.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc02a…b43fbacked Over48c208$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.161457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1046625.8%17 W · 49 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Over48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10413158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over48c180$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.615060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Over48c160$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.214459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Over48c160$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.211759%69 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over48c160$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.212162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under60c141.65$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5219347.2%91 W · 102 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over46c123$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4291553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Under52c122.16$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.641752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over51c119.4$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2387154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under65c112$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.824046.7%112 W · 128 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under42c110$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9852639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under54c104.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2480358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5214660.3%88 W · 58 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5214459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over48c99.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.993050%15 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under24c99.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430444.1%134 W · 170 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Under51c93.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.814151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Over48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.616955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under55c65.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7215748.4%76 W · 81 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under53c63.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.91,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over58c63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2831158.5%182 W · 129 L+27.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Over48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.215259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Over48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.213461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.213560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over45c52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.668550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over46c51.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0742947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over44c51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.565362.3%33 W · 20 L+12.0wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+83%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.525934.4%89 W · 170 L-28.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.539567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over46c48.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3936051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Over48c46.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Under54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over48c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.47953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Under39c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-51.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked Under54c42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.68560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over48c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.848942.7%38 W · 51 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Over48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.88469%58 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208868.2%60 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.098465.5%55 W · 29 L+16.4wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under51c31.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.324250%21 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…a78fbacked Over48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.254669.6%32 W · 14 L+10.7wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+57.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7a67…6ddebacked Over48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+170.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.613557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa684…ca71backed Over49c26.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x648d…2d10backed Over45c26.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under52c24.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4482044.5%365 W · 455 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under55c22.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3520849.5%103 W · 105 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c21.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.443,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cf…0f46backed Under52c20.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.