Tennis · resolved market
Rafael Jodar vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42440cd2998c474e52015eaf3517a5ad75b95bcfa61fcf7c6beae6b043f445c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354b…4744backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 3,153$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.37 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 1,471$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.61 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 599.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.17 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 509.9$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.66 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over 3.5 | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 193.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…6c2abacked Under 3.5 | 38c | 116$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under 3.5 | 39c | 107$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…39e1backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 103.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.5 | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Over 3.5 | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Over 3.5 | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Over 3.5 | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Over 3.5 | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Over 3.5 | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Over 3.5 | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Over 3.5 | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.5 | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 28.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rafael Jodar vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Jodar vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs MochizukiJodar won
- Set 2 Winner: Jodar vs MochizukiMochizuki won
- Set 3 Winner: Jodar vs MochizukiMochizuki won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5)Mochizuki won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Mochizuki (+2.5)Mochizuki won
- Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Shintaro MochizukiShintaro Mochizuki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.