Premier League · resolved market
Will Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4253bde4ce24e57d398c3cfc12852d84db651a8d60f82dc36e1ea94d78dfcab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 71c | 1,272$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.13 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 29c | 990.02$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.41 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 928.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.67 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed No | 36c | 638.89$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 41c | 605.71$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.68 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5f…5c67backed Yes | 73c | 520.55$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 45c | 500$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 410.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.34 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 304.1$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.78 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 70c | 193.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 466 | 51.9%242 W · 224 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 38c | 179.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Yes | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Yes | 66c | 147.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 30c | 99.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 162 | 33.3%54 W · 108 L | -14.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 15c | 77.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +125%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 67.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 46.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 67c | 32.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 33c | 31.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 56c | 21.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Yes | 54c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…d569backed Yes | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…eb5cbacked Yes | 76c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 50.9%147 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04?No won
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.