Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ca580374135c250c8c6308ecc493de628052a0b1145565fc7534ccd68601dc

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,759 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc23d…82c8backed Yes	63c	21,973$13,753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,753.48	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No	37c	19,859$7,381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,478.68	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+8.6wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+45%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No	59c	7,937$4,663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,274.41	100	57%57 W · 43 L	+8.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No	57c	5,122$2,919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,202.31	98	56.1%55 W · 43 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes	9c	4,768$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.73	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	62c	2,530$1,562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$968.26	966	45.4%439 W · 527 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1649…7d8abacked Yes	34c	1,487$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Yes	43c	1,250$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.5	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+52.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes	43c	1,000$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	531	34.5%183 W · 348 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No	66c	932.34$615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No	61c	750$458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.5	1,224	42.3%518 W · 706 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes	17c	592.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa0…833bbacked Yes	33c	500.07$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.79	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12c6…0691backed No	67c	500$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes	34c	469.92$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Yes	43c	465.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	66c	451.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.17	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No	66c	445.27$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.39	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Yes	39c	431.79$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.02	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a55…fd0dbacked Yes	47c	425$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.75	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No	57c	410.08$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.34	131	32.1%42 W · 89 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8818…4f5abacked Yes	28c	400$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348f…709dbacked No	57c	342.37$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes	25c	321.68$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d7…a861backed Yes	44c	318.18$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	121	43%52 W · 69 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Yes	43c	300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Yes	33c	300$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	-6.6wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes	42c	295.99$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.31	98	59.2%58 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b35…4a36backed Yes	15c	266.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ab…e3a9backed No	57c	262.86$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.03	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes	43c	232.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	91	34.1%31 W · 60 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa600…0fc5backed Yes	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	61.9%26 W · 16 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a60…a571backed Yes	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	54cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57c6…fde6backed Yes	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e52…9078backed Yes	42c	200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	55c	193.29$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.38	161	50.9%82 W · 79 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ff…8f70backed Yes	48c	173.33$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	-9.7wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed No	58c	159.73$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.09	129	54.3%70 W · 59 L	-8.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No	57c	150.96$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.91	850	48.4%411 W · 439 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes	43c	149.97$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.49	440	36.8%162 W · 278 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes	44c	136.36$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	162	33.3%54 W · 108 L	-14.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d14…d039backed Yes	31c	127$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Yes	33c	115$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.95	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46e6…d4cdbacked Yes	41c	110.68$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.08	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.23per pick	49cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes	32c	105.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.92	845	49%414 W · 431 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.77	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+8.3wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a3e…ef94backed No	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.5wins	+0.25per pick	39cpaid	+69.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	30c	95.6$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.02	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	351	34.8%122 W · 229 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes	33c	92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.36	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…1c65backed Yes	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	85	51.8%44 W · 41 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Yes	34c	88.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	297	35.4%105 W · 192 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2eb…9b76backed Yes	44c	80$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Yes	40c	70.75$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	217	47.9%104 W · 113 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed No	55c	70.7$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.81	77	40.3%31 W · 46 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddc4…413dbacked No	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7349…8a6dbacked No	68c	66.18$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.18	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	73cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe1a…2c0ebacked No	57c	65.07$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.98	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.39per pick	62cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes	44c	64.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.36	136	35.3%48 W · 88 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Yes	46c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	296	44.6%132 W · 164 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6f…c966backed Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	70	30%21 W · 49 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	34c	58.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	232	20.7%48 W · 184 L	-12.5wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe09e…5047backed No	68c	50.96$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.31	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	224	48.7%109 W · 115 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa9d…8ce0backed Yes	44c	45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No	34c	40$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.32	157	26.8%42 W · 115 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes	33c	38$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x858e…a4abbacked Yes	44c	36.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	110	48.2%53 W · 57 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3c…a938backed Yes	44c	34.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-5.4wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71c8…bc51backed Yes	44c	34.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf187…b390backed Yes	44c	34.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.39per pick	54cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8802…91d6backed Yes	47c	33.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No	65c	33.09$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.58	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb1d…a925backed Yes	42c	30.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	102	42.2%43 W · 59 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No	66c	29.41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1,163	57.4%667 W · 496 L	+40.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5d…be79backed No	67c	28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed No	68c	25.47$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.15	48	62.5%30 W · 18 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Yes	49c	24.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	112	29.5%33 W · 79 L	-9.8wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	60c	23.5$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	670	42.2%283 W · 387 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x102a…c161backed No	57c	23.35$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked No	67c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.93	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe13a…6bb5backed No	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+38%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca65…6746backed No	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf5…840ebacked No	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed No	67c	18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.94	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-5.1wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c22…70a0backed No	68c	17.71$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.67	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x137d…1cdbbacked No	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04?this page
Will Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?Yes won
Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-04?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event