Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-04?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8bd21dde66109146dcd35482b95c4fd4cc0ae3e4373ad31cb8c6f95b5c46cdb

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,288 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed No	62c	24,529$15,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,321.2	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	38c	5,592$2,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,123.01	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes	38c	3,993$1,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,497.79	80	65%52 W · 28 L	+10.3wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes	38c	3,741$1,421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,421.12	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1428…017cbacked Yes	38c	3,557$1,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,351.77	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.31per pick	46cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes	38c	2,900$1,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,102	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	38c	2,368$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.91	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	74c	1,897$1,404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.75	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes	22c	1,239$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.33	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+8.6wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+45%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x47f1…2638backed Yes	38c	1,147$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Yes	27c	999.99$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a233backed No	62c	644.61$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.95	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes	38c	544.94$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.29	1,204	50.7%610 W · 594 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed No	74c	432.43$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.43	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	39c	369$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.78	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes	38c	316.49$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.27	262	29.8%78 W · 184 L	+10.2wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x347c…525abacked Yes	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	114	46.5%53 W · 61 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes	38c	245.39$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.37	845	49%414 W · 431 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…621fbacked Yes	33c	242.44$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	75c	238.86$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.51	670	42.2%283 W · 387 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd094…271bbacked Yes	29c	236.21$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.5	200	27%54 W · 146 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc18f…bb01backed Yes	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc513…ffe7backed Yes	33c	215$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.95	63	27%17 W · 46 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes	37c	209.91$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.67	465	51.8%241 W · 224 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	1,224	40%490 W · 734 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed No	77c	194.95$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.95	38	68.4%26 W · 12 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c18…3d1cbacked Yes	38c	188.79$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No	65c	175$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.91	202	39.6%80 W · 122 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes	33c	164.88$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.41	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Yes	38c	155.5$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.09	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Yes	12c	140$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes	26c	131.37$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	1,208	42.2%510 W · 698 L	-27.4wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked No	67c	129.99$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.9	134	61.2%82 W · 52 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	28c	119.34$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.29	772	36.4%281 W · 491 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70d1…a7ffbacked Yes	38c	105.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	64cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No	67c	100.74$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.25	850	48.4%411 W · 439 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	119	55.5%66 W · 53 L	+13.0wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked No	61c	99.99$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	440	36.8%162 W · 278 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Yes	42c	92.46$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	44	50%22 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Yes	27c	90$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.3	253	39.1%99 W · 154 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc151…99e5backed Yes	29c	85.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No	61c	81$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.59	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	+9.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Yes	38c	78.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No	64c	74$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.64	1,146	42.8%490 W · 656 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4c…56bdbacked Yes	34c	72.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9339…5e4ebacked Yes	26c	69.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed No	75c	66.67$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes	25c	57.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	157	26.8%42 W · 115 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No	39c	55$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.4	182	51.6%94 W · 88 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	211	43.1%91 W · 120 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002e…f201backed Yes	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.33per pick	45cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	210	43.8%92 W · 118 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	87	31%27 W · 60 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed No	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	159	55.3%88 W · 71 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked No	78c	49.62$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	72	23.6%17 W · 55 L	-6.2wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2db…be15backed Yes	38c	49$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Yes	33c	45.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No	74c	39$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.14	451	42.6%192 W · 259 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf30…8cb4backed No	78c	38.46$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.46	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	32c	34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	964	45.4%438 W · 526 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	103	38.8%40 W · 63 L	-8.3wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d7f…c266backed Yes	38c	29.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1afdbacked No	78c	28.21$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.21	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	73cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes	38c	28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	584	45.9%268 W · 316 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc84f…c919backed Yes	38c	26.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed No	63c	24.09$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.94	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe09e…5047backed No	63c	23.92$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.85	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed No	74c	20.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.27	144	63.9%92 W · 52 L	+9.8wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a60…a571backed No	68c	19.38$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	54cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	65c	17.8$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.23	161	50.9%82 W · 79 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb3…c770backed No	62c	16.26$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.18	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	-9.7wins	-0.11per pick	64cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f7d…c4adbacked No	63c	16.19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.99	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed No	63c	16$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.92	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa439…5802backed No	74c	15.84$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.12	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	59cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-04?this page
Will Hull City AFC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?Yes won
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-04?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event