MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x425b43b6186af326aa4cdf7a092baa6ada6807518215b700bb054d4ce5414f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 50c | 1,289$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.5 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 50c | 790.63$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.32 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 50c | 429$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 50c | 428$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 49c | 246.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked Yes | 51c | 105.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 95.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Yes | 51c | 25.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…06a4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…f0cfbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…fa08backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…cae2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jaysthis page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.