MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd94398f177bf16ef96d0673b8091c7e2be8735f407b58bc0024a511f7290b91a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 30,871$19,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,113.47 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 8,713$3,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138.98 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 5,926$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.04 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 5,914$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.92 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,767$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.19 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,354$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.6 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 7c | 1,133$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 999.68$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.88 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…95d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 880.56$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 467.06$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.82 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 374.54$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 358.79$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 351$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 285$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 255$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 190.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 187.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 117.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 89.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 65.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 64.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 64.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Kansas City Royals | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 48.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 38.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 76c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…1773backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 25.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 25.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Kansas City Royals | 65c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 16.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.