MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd3b35ddc7cb8d081a0bc5d3465da7f6686ddf23fb0c11ec09f062c0061a76e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 15,196$8,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,063.97 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 7,722$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,975.55 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 58c | 6,090$3,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,558.05 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 4,066$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.06 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 2,832$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.54 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 57c | 2,048$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.64 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 1,766$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.55 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 978.95$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.38 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 751.72$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.75 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 631.86$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.02 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 623.99$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.21 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 58c | 586.38$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.28 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 548$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.52 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 484.58$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.52 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 59c | 355.93$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 56c | 355.35$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 44c | 350.61$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 60c | 287.06$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 60c | 284.23$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 274.7$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 110 | 64.5%71 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 249.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 60c | 146.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 60c | 146.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 32c | 122.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 41c | 117.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 60c | 111.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 29c | 110.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 59c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 60c | 85.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 23c | 76.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 34c | 76.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 58c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…299abacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 64c | 53.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 56c | 46.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…0bfebacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 31.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Under | 60c | 27.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 58c | 27.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Under | 60c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.