MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15ea342d9696af2f4cb00d679773512964b90956393a63cc9bf6ec8dfebeb360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 19,980$9,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,890.49 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 63c | 7,519$4,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.13 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…01e6backed Over | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a5a8backed Under | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 5,553$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.4 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 3,362$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.24 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 49c | 2,645$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.85 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 2,249$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.19 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 2,004$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.88 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 49c | 1,825$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.07 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 54c | 1,764$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.29 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 1,758$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.91 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 926.05$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.59 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 892.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 49c | 888$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.88 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 603$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.16 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 51c | 592.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.94 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 48c | 510$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 54c | 483.81$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Over | 52c | 471.68$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.28 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 34c | 392$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 390.48$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 48c | 264.24$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 49c | 255.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 246.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 47c | 221$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 183.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Under | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 29c | 138.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 133$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 22c | 125.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 114.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 97.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 95.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Over | 33c | 89.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 48c | 81.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 29c | 70.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 62.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 53.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 40c | 48.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 51c | 47.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 70c | 39.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 67c | 38.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 49c | 34.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…c949backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 71c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 71c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 65c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.