MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426ce6e1ee6195d2052ecab78c54facda782327bb52315e785c1f1c54e14b4fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 2,295$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.42 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd710…cf6fbacked Under | 61c | 1,161$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 40c | 964$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.4 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 337.56$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 324.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 181.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 59c | 126.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 16c | 98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…bd63backed Over | 34c | 72.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 68.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 52c | 62.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…ad43backed Under | 51c | 55.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 58c | 52.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 37c | 40.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 39c | 36.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 65c | 34.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 72c | 29.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Over | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.