MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde63962385083ada7ffb0cb4ae596fb2fb1f68fb4c55c0bf9aec025f8d12a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 2,606$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 1,464$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,375$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.65 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 1,344$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 1,234$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.28 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 800$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 792.39$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 741.56$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.02 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 722.13$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.18 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc64…8d0fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 9c | 500.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +253.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 482.58$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 417.9$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 386.6$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 345.03$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 258.33$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 247.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 220.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…0d90backed Cleveland Guardians | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 178$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…bd08backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 168.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 163.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 161.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 152.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 149.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 145.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 129.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 117.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 91.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 91.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 90.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 81.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 79.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 76.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…ab66backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 75.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 75.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 67.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 59.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 56.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 56.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 54.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 49.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 49.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 48.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 47.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 42.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 41.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 39.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…aec4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 35.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 29.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 24.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 23.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…a43fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 22.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…dc08backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 22.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…4a98backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 18.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.