TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays62c2,606$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.654,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays61c1,464$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5715,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Cleveland Guardians39c1,375$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.6518151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays63c1,344$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.6910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Tampa Bay Rays61c1,234$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.2856851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays61c800$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3086,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians38c792.39$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.2312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed Cleveland Guardians39c741.56$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.025149%25 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians27c722.13$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.182,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc64…8d0fbacked Cleveland Guardians9c500.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.941030%3 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+253.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians33c482.58$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.259,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Tampa Bay Rays61c417.9$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.841,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians38c386.6$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.912,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Tampa Bay Rays67c345.03$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.861,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Cleveland Guardians38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11412339%48 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays60c258.33$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.166,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians38c253.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2856946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6672…9ea3backed Cleveland Guardians39c247.51$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.345143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians39c247.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3448150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Cleveland Guardians39c220.09$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1617652.8%93 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed Cleveland Guardians5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105429.6%16 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians38c178$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.642,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4beb…bd08backed Tampa Bay Rays62c168.33$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.973666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians38c163.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.211,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays67c161.29$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.232,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians38c152.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1149649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45dd…7b56backed Cleveland Guardians38c149.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8916242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays67c145.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.874,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Cleveland Guardians38c129.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0916543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d00…7507backed Cleveland Guardians38c117.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.719642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays57c91.74$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7211,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians36c91.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.682,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians35c90.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6684122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Cleveland Guardians43c81.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8826853.4%143 W · 125 L+1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians39c79.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Cleveland Guardians38c76.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.887653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1f…ab66backed Cleveland Guardians39c75.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.472751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Cleveland Guardians42c75.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3414034.3%48 W · 92 L-13.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cleveland Guardians39c67.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.356440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians40c59.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1766749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Cleveland Guardians39c59.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0394648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d2…6ea7backed Cleveland Guardians43c56.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.142040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cleveland Guardians40c56.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4847743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Cleveland Guardians39c54.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2541847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Cleveland Guardians39c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2722554.7%123 W · 102 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7307…b257backed Cleveland Guardians39c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.278158%47 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians39c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2766448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Cleveland Guardians39c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2727452.6%144 W · 130 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5a…59b9backed Cleveland Guardians39c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.278943.8%39 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Cleveland Guardians60c49.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6451555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Cleveland Guardians38c49.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7268942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca6…08ffbacked Cleveland Guardians39c48.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.893056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+50.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Cleveland Guardians48c48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8855847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Tampa Bay Rays55c47.14$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Cleveland Guardians47c42.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.967742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians58c41.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.996,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians39c39.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…aec4backed Tampa Bay Rays61c35.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+48.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Cleveland Guardians39c29.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5617450.6%88 W · 86 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays53c24.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.711,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1024…9651backed Tampa Bay Rays60c24.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7633556.1%188 W · 147 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cleveland Guardians60c23.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.051,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2142…a43fbacked Tampa Bay Rays65c22.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ebf…dc08backed Tampa Bay Rays61c22.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7de…4a98backed Tampa Bay Rays71c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.092352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Tampa Bay Rays65c18.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Tampa Bay Rays64c17.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4952449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays64c17.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.491,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays64c15.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.