MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450547ae82b69cc60492380773545810b48c341372042e51115066c73113b53b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 50c | 11,660$5,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,806.07 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 7,552$3,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.7 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed Over | 39c | 5,719$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 4,879$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.12 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 3,722$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 62c | 1,655$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 62c | 1,214$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.65 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 61c | 1,179$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.7 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 61c | 1,024$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.33 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 27c | 941.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 61c | 656.93$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 500.52$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.3 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Under | 57c | 328.91$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 298.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 61c | 237.38$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 61c | 235.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 54c | 208.42$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 57c | 145.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 10c | 131.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 73c | 118.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 53c | 109.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Over | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 54c | 81.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 33c | 60.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 54.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Over | 62c | 39.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 57c | 34.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 60c | 29.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…ad85backed Under | 61c | 27.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked Over | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.