CS2 · resolved market
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42795c7bed64fe0ea8cc68dbb6c05a1328ed4896af629d72fafae5272e7e1be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 551.01$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.67 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…2ce6backed Spirit | 49c | 512.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.41 | 297 | 57.6%171 W · 126 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit | 36c | 370.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.17 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…50fcbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 174.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 127.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…7712backed Spirit | 47c | 114.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 109.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 82.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3416…adaabacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 81.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 289 | 35.3%102 W · 187 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Spirit | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…df09backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 65.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Spirit | 37c | 43.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3afd…ccc3backed Spirit | 55c | 30.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Spirit | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…ff15backed Spirit | 49c | 27.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Spirit | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 24.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Spirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.