CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc7a3c7e788857a5ee42a878b651cee243b66c340d338113a5af22fef00aa96c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Spirit, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56d…9eeabacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 5,918$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.48 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…d85abacked Spirit | 53c | 3,605$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.62 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9c…b3e0backed Spirit | 51c | 2,125$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.94 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 570.84$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.21 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit | 45c | 555.53$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.79 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spirit | 51c | 190.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…b432backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 190.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaa…95d6backed Spirit | 45c | 175.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 166.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Spirit | 47c | 166.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…df09backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 85.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…3366backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 81.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…13a5backed Spirit | 51c | 78.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…6be1backed Spirit | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 59.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 324 | 58%188 W · 136 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 33.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Spirit | 45c | 24.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Spirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.