Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x427af2b547d8ae693ed3085d0fd8affff1aaa84a408b58ee1eba32b34c76c447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 25c | 4,039$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.9 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 50c | 3,990$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 3,400$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 1,734$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.7 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 74c | 1,681$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.41 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,527$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 20c | 1,174$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.43 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 52c | 975.8$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.2 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 657.28$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.88 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 78c | 507.12$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.1 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 50c | 500$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 75c | 467$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.25 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 39c | 406.13$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.66 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…1532backed Over | 37c | 275.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 240.45$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 219.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 75c | 166$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 75c | 166$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 75c | 166$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 75c | 155.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 78c | 153.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 54c | 142$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 14c | 125.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +230.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 76.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 80c | 71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 33c | 67.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 64.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 56.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 77c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 36c | 48.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 22c | 45.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 33c | 42.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 78c | 42.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 78c | 32.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 68c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 75c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.