Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84adc81fcfabfffe02d09424ae35ddd156a635e8497e22256aac04444db04311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 78c | 3,011$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.11 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 16c | 2,678$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 55c | 2,129$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.45 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 14c | 1,159$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 15c | 891.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 880.34$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.05 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 862$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.58 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 13c | 321.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Under | 8c | 311.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over | 60c | 275$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 15c | 257$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…40eabacked Under | 50c | 223.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…600cbacked Under | 50c | 222.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd7…934abacked Under | 50c | 217.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…9a7dbacked Under | 50c | 216.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…4bc6backed Under | 50c | 216.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…1cb4backed Under | 50c | 216.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…6f37backed Under | 50c | 213.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…0142backed Under | 50c | 210.62$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…e3e1backed Under | 50c | 210.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…4471backed Under | 50c | 209.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…f70ebacked Under | 50c | 208.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…2962backed Under | 50c | 207.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…a5cbbacked Under | 50c | 207.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…d107backed Over | 61c | 207.28$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…b786backed Under | 50c | 204.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…821dbacked Under | 50c | 203.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…c51bbacked Under | 50c | 201.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…28aebacked Under | 50c | 201.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ec08backed Under | 50c | 200.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e27…a24cbacked Under | 50c | 200.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…bf96backed Under | 50c | 199.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…01d3backed Under | 50c | 199.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…db7ebacked Under | 50c | 197.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…504fbacked Under | 50c | 197.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…d917backed Under | 50c | 195.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…3ea0backed Under | 50c | 191.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d1…553dbacked Under | 50c | 191.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…32b2backed Under | 50c | 190.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…6df7backed Under | 50c | 189.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b09…e3d3backed Under | 50c | 188.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…8fc1backed Under | 50c | 186.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +55%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 181.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 65c | 155$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Under | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 23c | 119.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 55c | 92.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 78c | 86.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 65c | 72.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 28c | 67.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 74c | 48.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 41.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 35.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Over won
- Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.