Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42aa7dbec89fe4ca6d09095c1fdc32b454f596c0b7ed7c8345021e2634442e7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 67c | 335.79$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 6c | 273.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 256.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 222.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 68c | 217.65$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.49 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 192.73$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 69c | 180$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 34c | 161.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 72c | 160.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 158.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 36c | 145.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 127.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 125.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 33c | 112$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 111.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 104.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 89.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 86.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 83.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 82.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 29c | 77.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 23c | 70.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 35c | 56.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 55.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 55.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked No | 22c | 53.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 52.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 50.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 49.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 47.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 35c | 45.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 65c | 44.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed No | 68c | 40.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 71c | 39.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 41c | 36.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 35.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 33.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 36c | 31.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 35c | 30.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 27.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 69c | 26.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 25.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 20.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…8456backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 65c | 17.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 15.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 77°F or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.