Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b935f598eea642bf6dc0fd17fdc13db634271f61eab68a22a506797c9681e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 1,060$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 417.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 49c | 276.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 69c | 234.85$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.61 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 221.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 182.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 13c | 181.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.54 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 51c | 177.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 177.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 168.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 15c | 163.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 139.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 117.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 79c | 97.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 15c | 95.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 30c | 91.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 43c | 84.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 81.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 30c | 80.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 70c | 72.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 69.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 67.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 63.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 46c | 62.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 62.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 61.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 61.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 60.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 59.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 56.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 51.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 51.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 69c | 48.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 58c | 45.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 43.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 51c | 41.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…5d52backed No | 53c | 41.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 72c | 40.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 38.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 52c | 38.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 37c | 37.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 36.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 47c | 35.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 59c | 34.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 34.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 44c | 33.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…1e49backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 31.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 45c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…708abacked Yes | 48c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 45c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked Yes | 42c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 64c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 53c | 22.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…f395backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…cdd9backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 80c | 19.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 62c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e320backed Yes | 73c | 17.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa138…7a9bbacked Yes | 79c | 16.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.