Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x282c371d9370eeadb3ddfa7b5e871677bfc9940ec511e4a6e8c97877f40c916a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 78c | 1,053$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.65 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 881.24$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.82 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 22c | 589$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.86 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 441.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 428.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.49 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 38c | 375.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 52c | 329.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 21c | 291.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 80c | 232.13$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 225.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 221.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 217.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 204.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 62c | 202.05$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…276fbacked Yes | 10c | 196$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 185$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 177.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 21c | 176.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 175.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 12c | 163$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 63c | 157.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 153$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 147.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 146.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 130.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 17c | 127.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 74c | 127.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 12c | 125.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 113.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 17c | 112.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 72c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 67c | 103$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 29c | 101.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 64c | 98.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 42c | 98.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 70c | 98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 63c | 94.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 91.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 90.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 27c | 88.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 85.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…1ae5backed No | 64c | 78.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 75.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 19c | 71.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 19c | 70.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 67c | 68.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 27c | 68.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f2…1a34backed No | 62c | 66.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 59.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 26c | 57.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 57.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 77c | 55.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 51.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 49.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 48.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 31c | 47.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 23c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 38c | 38.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 32.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…5dc9backed No | 74c | 27.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 61c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 62c | 26.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 60c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked No | 68c | 23.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…75aebacked No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 17.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 70c | 16.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.