TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,903 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2ff…6ab4backed No78c1,053$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.654965.3%32 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes26c881.24$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.8240226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes22c589$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.8692028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No10c441.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.312,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes13c428.05$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.491,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8db…458dbacked Yes38c375.13$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.592437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes52c329.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9911883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes21c291.68$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0339951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes80c232.13$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.442,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c225.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.672,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c221.7$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.185,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No67c217.4$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.67,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes37c204.04$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.031,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes62c202.05$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.532,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe581…276fbacked Yes10c196$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+98.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c185$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.575,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes16c177.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.811,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes21c176.06$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7441046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c175.06$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes12c163$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No63c157.26$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.011,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes18c153$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.161,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes7c150$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.51,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes74c147.4$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.732,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c146.93$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.686,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c130.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.498,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd521…1889backed No17c127.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.523470.6%24 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes74c127.73$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.992,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes12c125.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7415722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes19c120$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.136,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No51c113.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.371,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No17c112.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No72c110$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5757545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No67c103$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1624841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bca…0500backed Yes29c101.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.478538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816926.1%18 W · 51 L-11.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-45.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf913…9e87backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.49066.7%60 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes64c98.86$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes42c98.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.912,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No70c98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9739966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No63c94.67$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4117443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes13c91.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.22,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes68c90.22$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.822,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes27c88.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c85.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.82,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dce…1ae5backed No64c78.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.36per pick60cpaid-59.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c75.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes19c71.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.924542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes19c70.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.971926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+95.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes67c68.23$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.532,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes27c68.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.728441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0f2…1a34backed No62c66.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.813738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.963,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c59.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.763,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes26c57.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5937355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c57.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No77c55.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed Yes31c51.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3935441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes34c49.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c48.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes31c47.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7519217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes23c46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5831062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes38c38.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8120438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No72c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.262,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No67c32.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6239968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No62c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No64c29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No71c28.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b3…5dc9backed No74c27.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.731154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No61c27.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7617766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804b…b090backed No62c26.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4218365.6%120 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No74c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.451,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c24.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.494,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No60c24.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6628270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e5…c08fbacked No68c23.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.152733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3580…714ebacked No73c20.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.042152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be8…75aebacked No74c18.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No65c17.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a49…59e0backed No70c16.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.852835.7%10 W · 18 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick61cpaid-32.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No60c16.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No69c16.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.