Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x498da007268b36d35738dc59c9f1c42d7c71b1a81244678932e738d37e1a14e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 348.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 347.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 15c | 335.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 232.9$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 25c | 189.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 131$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 123$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 16c | 109.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 109.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 22c | 107.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 95.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked Yes | 16c | 78.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 77.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Yes | 16c | 77.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03fa…3573backed No | 72c | 69.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 37c | 62.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 69c | 61.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 59.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 25c | 59.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 69c | 55.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 50.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 48.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 45.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 70c | 43.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 39.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 37c | 36.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…1e49backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 33c | 30.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 73c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 70c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.