MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42ba938e7fc70a8c7ae8deac2210a7e0aad8b316c6feba54924658c7558c4df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 22,940$14,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,258.23 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 10,831$3,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.06 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 9,497$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406.29 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 1,434$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.17 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 1,401$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.46 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…f1f9backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 709.61$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 568.69$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.88 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 513.22$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 501$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.61 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 491.55$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.02 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 421.64$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 393.01$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 318.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 303.73$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 264.05$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 492 | 46.1%227 W · 265 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 163.1$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…b0b8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 53.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 46.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,501 | 63.4%951 W · 550 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 40.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…ed7bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…6f6fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.